Mark Trumbo at fall instructional league in September 2008.
Mark Trumbo may be the Rodney Dangerfield of Angels prospects.
Mark has always been on the fringe of Baseball America‘s Top 10 Angels prospects. This year, he ranked #9. In the three years before, he ranked #29, #8 and #11.
In their 2011 review, BA analyst Matt Eddy wrote:
He doesn’t chase offspeed stuff away like he once did, but he swings and misses too much to hit for a high average. Detractors question whether he has the bat speed to hit the very best fastballs.
The more statistically inclined John Sickels of MinorLeagueBall.com wrote in 2010, “Trumbo looks like a guy who will get buried as a minor league slugger,” but this year says, “I still see him as a ‘surprise season’ candidate in the next couple of years, but keep in mind that it is easy to put up gaudy numbers in Salt Lake.”
Having been an occasional observer of Mark’s career since it began in Orem in 2005, I’ve been more enthusiastic about his potential than other analysts. On the FutureAngels.com Top 10 Prospects lists, Mark was #3 in 2008, #7 in 2009 and #6 in 2010.
Everyone learns at a different rate, in baseball as well as everywhere else in life, so many on fan boards over the years have dismissed him as a prospect because he didn’t instantly arrive in the major leagues and hit 40 homers. I think people tend to forget he was profiled more as a pitcher prospect out of high school than a hitter, although his high school hitting numbers were impressive. It was an audition by scouting director Eddie Bane in the spring of 2004 at Angel Stadium that convinced him to draft Trumbo as a hitter, after watching Mark hit some balls into the left-center field fountains. Mark was drafted in the 18th round of the June 2004 draft yet received a $1.425 million bonus, because he was already ticketed for a college education at USC.
Mark is 25 now, a bit old for a top prospect to emerge from the minors, but my observation has been that it’s taken him longer because he tends to want to test and experiment and think things through. In this March 8 MLB.com profile, reporter Lyle Spencer describes Mark as “soft-spoken and analytical,” and writes that Mark is “more focused on fundamental elements — pitch recognition, controlling his aggression, improving his glove and foot work at first base — to dwell on how far balls travel off his bat or how much fear his line drives create for pitchers.”
When I read that passage, I thought, “Yep, that’s Mark.”
I’ve flashed my own cautionary lights about Salt Lake numbers. In the FutureAngels.com Top 10 reports, when I analyze Salt Lake hitters I break out not just their home/away numbers but their numbers in the five Pacific Coast League super-hitter friendly parks (Salt Lake, Albuquerque, Colorado Springs, Las Vegas, Reno) versus the rest of the league, which shows a more accurate picture of the hitter’s performance.
Trumbo’s 2010 numbers:
OVERALL AVG/OBP/SLG: .301/.368/.577 (595 TPA)
HITTER-FRIENDLY AVG/OBP/SLG: .334/.403/.614 (395 TPA)
NEUTRAL/PITCHER-FRIENDLY AVG/OBP/SLG: .236/.300/.505 (200 TPA)
The batting average number dropped significantly in the neutral/pitcher-friendly parks, but the slugging percentage was still more than respectable.
Mark is the “hit,” so to speak, of spring training. His AVG/OBP/SLG in 27 at-bats are .370/.393/.815 with three homers and three doubles. Spring training numbers are meaningless, especially early in the month when pitchers have yet to round into shape, and many of the pitchers are actually minor leaguers filling the back-end of a nine-inning game.
Yet he’s in the spotlight now because it appears that Kendry Morales probably won’t be fit enough to open the season at first base from the Angels. Kendry is still recovering from his broken leg and has yet to run on the field. A March 5 Orange County Register article quoted manager Mike Scioscia as saying it’s possible for Morales to open with the Angels, but the article notes that Kendry still runs in harness on a treadmill to carry some of his weight while running. That’s not a good sign less than a month before Opening Day on March 31.
So the door appears wide open for Trumbo to fulfill a lifelong dream and play first base for the Angels to start 2011. If and when Morales is ready, Mark probably returns to Salt Lake. The Angels have exposed him to right field the last two seasons, and it seems logical to play him in the corner outfield positions as much as possible to groom him as a backup for Vernon Wells and Torii Hunter. Along with Morales, those are three very large road blocks for Mark’s career, but one never knows when an opportunity will present itself — such as Kendry breaking his leg celebrating on home plate after a grand-slam.